With or Without the US, The Future of Tech is Globalism
I spent most of August, September, and October on the road for work. I then capped that with a celebratory vacation week in Panama, exploring cities, beaches and jungles. As luck would have it, this also allowed me to miss the acrimony and chaos of the national US elections.
Earlier this week, I returned to a country in which Donald Trump had pulled of a surprising upset, causing the world to scramble to adjust its mental model of the coming 4 years. The night of the election alone, markets plummeted and then subsequently rallied. In the time since, people all over the world have furiously tried to make sense of what the development means for them.
Quick Disclaimer
I personally find partisan politics (at least in the US — I can’t speak as well for other countries) to resemble rooting for sports teams. Americans decide, usually based on their parents’ loyalties, to root for The Republicans or The Democrats, and they get pretty upset when their team loses and the other team wins, ala fans of the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees. Think of partisan US politics as like baseball, except the winner of the World Series gets to declare wars and approve federal budgets.
So as an entrepreneur and someone with a readership of unknowable team loyalty distribution, it behooves me not to choose sides, notwithstanding my own political beliefs (though, for the record, I don’t view politics as a spectator sport and so I genuinely have no home team loyalty). I try to remain publicly, politically neutral. And I will do my best to do so in this post, even as I talk about a theme heavily informed by US politics.
The Beginning of a Tech Dispersion
Specifically, I want to talk today about what this election means for the future of tech. As a free agent and entrepreneur, I monitor relevant events more closely than most, looking for opportunities and warning signs. And I think this unexpected outcome of the US election presents both opportunities and warning signs for software developers and technologists.
I believe the US has charted a course away from its status as a global technology leader and that the next decade will reveal opportunities for other countries to fill any resultant void. The world constantly looks for “the next Silicon Valley.” It should start looking for this in other countries.
I’m going to lay out in this post why I think this, and I’m going to do it without value judgment editorializing (or try my best, anyway). And then I’m going to talk about what I think this means for people that earn a living writing software or making technology. How do you prepare for and capitalize on a less US-centric techie world?
So, first up, the why. Why do I say that the US role in global technology will become de-emphasized during a Trump presidency? Caveat emptor. I could be totally wrong about all of this, but the plays I suggest are ones I plan to make, so I will put my money where my mouth is.